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UK GSM networks - subscriber data |
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Second quarter of 2000: 2000 Q2* (2000 Q1)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE BT CELLNET 670,000 457,000 8.07m 26.35% (-0.88%) ONE2ONE 1,000,000 861,000 6.02m 19.66% (+1.19%) ORANGE 1,200,000 1,080,000 7.17m 23.42% (+1.46%) VODAFONE 572,000 851,000 9.36m 30.57% (-1.77%) TOTAL 3,442,000 3,249,000 30.62m 100% * Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during April - June 2000. ** Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during January - March 2000. *** New total number of pre-pay and contract subscribers at June 30th 2000.Analysis: Another quarter dominated by the growth of Orange - they are the fastest growing network again this quarter with 1.2 million net connections, a huge amount, considering it's not Christmas. one2one are the next fastest-growing (not far behind; also in 7 figures), followed at some distance by BT Cellnet, and finally Vodafone with a disappointing growth, relatively speaking, with less then half of the Orange figure. - Orange crossed the 6m and 7m subscriber marks during the quarter.
Overall a very healthy quarter with 3.4m net connections, and a total of over 30 million mobile phone users in the UK (assuming 1 phone per user). There has been a lot of press coverage about mobile phones reaching over 50% population penetration in the UK. Although this author suspects that a good proportion of people have more than 1 phone... If the overall growth rates of the individual networks seen during Q1 and Q2 2000 continue in the same way during Q3 and Q4 2000, then Orange will become Britain's second most popular network before the end of the year, behind Vodafone, pushing BT Cellnet into third place. This will be the first change in 'ranking' in the UK since Orange overtook one2one in the mid 1990's. As all the networks pile on their subscriber numbers, it is likely that
for buyers and owners of mobile phones in the UK the issues will not be
about call costs, but also network capacity and quality of customer service.
(I don't know... why not write and tell me?). It will be interesting to
see in the coming months what actions will be taken by mobile phone operators
in order to try and retain their subscribers & their market share following
the huge growth seen over the last year or so, particularly when the UK
market saturates, as I feel it must do within in the next couple of years.
First quarter of 2000: 2000 Q1* (1999 Q4)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE BT CELLNET 457,000 1,001,000 7.40m 27.23% ONE2ONE 861,000 903,000 5.02m 18.47% ORANGE 1,080,000 1,410,000 5.97m 21.96% VODAFONE 851,000 1,075,000 8.79m 32.34% TOTAL 3,249,000 4,389,000 27.18m 100% * Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during January - March 2000. ** Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during October - December 1999. *** New total number of pre-pay and contract subscribers at March 31st 2000.Analysis: Another great quarter for Orange - the revamp of their prepay package has really reaped benefits - they are the fastest growing network this quarter with over 1 million net connections. One2One, who have also recently changed their pre-pay scheme, are next fastest-growing, followed closely by Vodafone. Voda have introduced Pay As You Talk without a service charge during the quarter - this may well prove to be a popular move for them, next quarter. BT Cellnet have had a very disappointing quarter compared with the other networks, with less than half the net connections of Orange. I would suspect they are now reviewing their pre-pay offerings. Overall a very healthy quarter with 3.2m net connections, and a total of 27 million mobile phone users in the UK (assuming 1 phone per user). However this author wonders a) whether people owning multiple phones and b) with the conditions for 'disconnection' from a pre-pay (no monthly charge) tariff possibly varying from network to network (I'm not sure this is the case), affecting churn rates, whether these totals give a complete portrayal of current mobile phone penetration in the UK, or an optimistic one. Fourth quarter of 1999: 1999 Q4* (1999 Q3)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE BT CELLNET 1,001,000 923,000 6.95m 29.0% ONE2ONE 903,000 604,000 4.16m 17.4% ORANGE 1,410,000 520,000 4.90m 20.5% VODAFONE 1,075,000 701,000 7.94m 33.1% TOTAL 4,389,000 2,748,000 23.95m 100% * Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during October - December 1999. ** Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during July - September 1999. *** New total number of pre-pay and contract subscribers at December 31st 1999.Analysis: - Over 4 million net connections during quarter, now approaching 24 million mobile phones in the UK. - Over 40% market penetration (assuming 1 phone per user). - Record subscriber growth for all UK networks, collectively and individually. - Orange had a very good quarter, the fastest growing network in terms of subscribers. (A new, much more competitive, pre-pay package had been introduced and widely marketed during the quarter). Vodafone, for so long the fastest growing network, saw the second fastest growth during the quarter, closely followed by BT Cellnet and lastly One2One, the slowest growing network this quarter. - Vodafone passed 7 million customer mark during the quarter (and now approaching 8m). - BT Cellnet passed the 6 million customer mark during the quarter (and now approaching 7m). - Orange passed the 4 million customer mark during the quarter (and now approaching 5m). - One2One passed the 4 million customer mark during the quarter. - In terms of market share, both Orange and One2One gained market share (+2.7% and +0.8% respectively) from Vodafone and BT Cellnet (-2.0% and -1.5% respectively) during the quarter. Pre-pay vs post-pay/contract:
Third quarter of 1999: 1999 Q3* (1999 Q2)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE BT CELLNET 923,000 501,000 5.95m 30.5% ONE2ONE 604,000 401,000 3.25m 16.6% ORANGE 520,000 430,000 3.48m 17.8% VODAFONE 701,000 587,000 6.846m 35.1% TOTAL 2,748,000 1,919,000 19.526m 100% * Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during July - September 1999. ** Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during April - June 1999. *** New total number of pre-pay and contract subscribers at September 30th 1999.Analysis: - Very nearly 2.75 million connections during quarter, now approaching 20 million mobile phones in the UK. - Over 30% market penetration (assuming 1 phone per user). - BT Cellnet was the fastest growing network during the quarter in terms of customers, however Vodafone (second fastest growing) still the most popular network. One2One are third-fastest growing, but in terms of total subscribers have yet to catch up with Orange, the network seeing least customer growth this quarter. - Orange passed the 3 million customer mark during the quarter. - One2One passed the 3 million customer mark during the quarter. - In terms of market share, both BT Cellnet and One2One gained market share (+0.6% and +0.8% respectively) from Vodafone and Orange (-1.2% and -0.2% respectively) during the quarter. Pre-pay vs post-pay/contract:
Second quarter of 1999: 1999 Q2* (1999 Q1)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE BT CELLNET 501,000 (479,000) 5,023,000 29.9% ONE2ONE 401,000 (329,000) 2,650,000 15.8% ORANGE 430,000 (370,000) 2,962,000 17.6% VODAFONE 587,000 (700,000) 6,160,000 36.7% TOTAL 1,919,000 (1,878,000) 16,795,000 * Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during April - June 1999. ** Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during January - March 1999. *** New total number of pre-pay and contract subscribers at June 30th 1999.Analysis: - Very nearly two million connections during quarter, now approaching 17 million mobile phones in the UK. - Nearly 30% market penetration (assuming 1 phone per user). - Vodafone once again the most popular and fastest growing network in terms of customers, followed by BT Cellnet (second largest, second fastest-growing), then Orange then One2One. - Vodafone passed the 6 million customer mark during the quarter. - BT Cellnet passed the 5 million customer mark during the quarter. - In terms of market share, both Vodafone and BT Cellnet are losing small amounts (0.5% and 0.76% respectively) to Orange and One2One. Pre-pay vs post-pay/contract:- BT Cellnet connected 360,000 pre-pay (72%) and 141,000 post-pay / contract net (28%) during the quarter. - About 2/3 of Orange's connections (thus approx 280,000) were apparently to contracts, the remaining third to pre-pay. - One2One I have no data for. - Vodafone connected 650,000 pre-pay customers and -67,000 (minus 67,000) post-pay / contract customers, reflecting partly the huge success of Pay As You Talk, and also a one-off anomaly in the figures, because during the quarter, the dormant subscriber accounts at two of Vodafone's airtime service providers were closed. First quarter of 1999: 1999 Q1* (1998 Q4)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE CELLNET 479,000 (658,000) 4,520,000 30.40% ONE2ONE 329,000 (439,000) 2,250,000 15.13% ORANGE 370,000 (512,000) 2,530,000 17.01% VODAFONE 700,000 (933,000) 5,570,000 37.46% TOTAL 1,878,000 2,542,000 14,870,000 * Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during January - March 1999. ** Net increase in pre-pay and contract subscribers during October - December 1998. *** New total number of pre-pay and contract subscribers at March 31st 1999 (includes pre-pay).Analysis: A little under two million net connections during the quarter, now approaching 15 million mobile phones in the UK. Vodafone is once again the most popular and fastest-growing network in terms of customers, followed by Cellnet (second largest, second fastest-growing), then Orange, then One2One. In terms of market share, Vodafone has held steady during the quarter while Cellnet has lost a small amount of market share to Orange and One2One. Pre-pay vs post-pay/contract: The figures above take into account
both pre-pay and post-pay connections. In terms of new contract customers,
(ie ignoring pre-pay) if my calculations are correct Vodafone signed up
49,000 contract customers, Cellnet 110,170, Orange 125,800 and One2One
98,700. These are very different figures to the totals above!
Fourth quarter of 1998: 1998 Q4* (1998 Q3)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE CELLNET 658,000 (230,000) 4,044,000 (4.044m) 31.09% ONE2ONE 439,000 (127,000) 1,929,000 (1.929m) 14.83% ORANGE 512,000 (201,000) 2,162,000 (2.162m) 16.62% VODAFONE 933,000 (302,000) 4,873,000 (4.873m) 37.46% TOTAL 2,542,000 (860,000) 13,008,000 (13.008m) * Net increase in subscribers during October - December 1998. ** Net increase in subscribers during July - September 1998. *** New total number of subscribers at December 31st 1998 (includes pre-pay).Analysis: 2.5m connections during Q4 1998 (phew!). Now 13m mobile phones in UK. Most popular network (Vodafone) is fastest growing during the quarter, second most popular network (Cellnet) second fastest growing, etc. Cellnet and Vodafone lose some market share to Orange and One2One, but Vodafone in particular is still the dominant player in the UK market. Pre-pay vs post-pay/contract: According to the Vodafone and One2One
websites, their growth during quarter was approx 20% contract/80% pre-pay
each, while Orange website reports 36% contract/64% pre-pay, and Cellnet
approx 31% contract/69% pre-pay. These figures mean that Vodafone have
the greatest number of new pre-pay (as well of course as total overall)
customers during Q4 1998, and Cellnet have the greatest number of new post-pay/contract
customers for the same period.
Third quarter of 1998: 1998 Q3* (1998 Q2)** TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS*** MARKET SHARE (%) CELLNET 230,000 (79,000) 3,386,000 (3.386m) 32.35% ONE2ONE 127,000 (160,000) 1,490,000 (1.49m) 14.24% ORANGE 201,000 (132,000) 1,650,000 (1.65m) 15.77% VODAFONE 302,000 (206,000) 3,940,000 (3.94m) 37.64% TOTAL 860,000 (577,000) 10,466,000 (10.466m) * Net increase in subscribers during July - September 1998. ** Net increase in subscribers during April - June 1998. *** New total number of subscribers at September 30th 1998. |
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